Is 4% a safe withdrawal rate?

It’s a common rule of thumb. Success depends on returns, longevity, fees, taxes, and spending flexibility. Use lower rates for more safety.

Should I use nominal or real returns?

For safety, use a real (after-inflation) return assumption or lower nominal rate to avoid overestimating growth.

What about Social Security/pensions?

Not included. You can reduce annual spending by expected guaranteed income to model their impact.

Can I model changing contributions?

This version assumes steady monthly contributions. Revisit yearly as income or savings rate changes.

Are taxes/fees included?

No. Adjust spending and return assumptions to account for taxes and investment fees.

finance calculator

FIRE Calculator (Financial Independence)

Find your FIRE number and estimate how many years it will take to reach it based on your spending, withdrawal rate, current savings, contributions, and expected return.

Results

FIRE number (portfolio target): $1,500,000
Estimated years to FIRE: 25.92
Estimated months to FIRE: 311.00
Projected balance at FIRE: $1,502,516
Total contributions (incl. starting balance): $616,500

How to use this calculator

Enter your annual spending and target withdrawal rate (e.g., 4%).
Enter current invested savings and monthly contribution.
Enter an expected annual return (set to 0–3% for conservative/real returns).
Review your FIRE number and estimated years/months to reach it.

Inputs explained

Annual spending: Your expected annual expenses in today’s dollars.
Withdrawal rate: Percent of your portfolio you plan to withdraw annually (common rule: 4%).
Current savings: Invested balance toward financial independence.
Monthly contribution: Amount you add each month toward FIRE.
Expected return: Annual return assumption; use conservative/real-return estimates for safety.

How it works

FIRE number = annual spending ÷ withdrawal rate (e.g., 4%).

We simulate month-by-month growth using your expected annual return and monthly contributions until the balance meets the FIRE number.

Outputs show the target, months/years to reach it, projected balance, and total contributions.

Formula

FIRE number = Annual spending ÷ Withdrawal rate
Balance growth simulated monthly: Balance_{n+1} = (Balance_n + Contribution) × (1 + Return/12) until Balance ≥ FIRE number

When to use it

Checking your progress toward financial independence.
Seeing the impact of higher savings rates or lower spending on time to FIRE.
Comparing 3–4% withdrawal rates for safety vs speed.

Tips & cautions

Use a conservative return (real, after inflation) and lower withdrawal rate if you want more margin.
Reducing spending lowers the FIRE number and can cut years off the timeline.
Increasing contributions or front-loading savings in high-earning years can accelerate the path.
Revisit annually—market returns and spending can shift your trajectory.
Assumes constant return, constant contributions, and no taxes/fees/inflation adjustments.
Withdrawal rate success varies by market sequence, fees, and longevity risk—4% is not guaranteed.
Does not model Social Security, pensions, or side income in retirement.

Worked examples

$60k spending, 4% withdrawal, $150k saved, $1,500/month, 5% return

FIRE number = $1.5M
Time to FIRE ≈ 26.0 years (≈311 months)

$80k spending, 3.5% withdrawal, $300k saved, $2,500/month, 6% return

FIRE number ≈ $2.29M
Time to FIRE ≈ 20.8 years (≈250 months)

Deep dive

This FIRE calculator shows your financial independence number and how many years it might take to reach it based on spending, withdrawal rate, current savings, contributions, and expected return.

Use it to gauge your path to financial independence and test how saving more or spending less changes your timeline.

FAQs

Is 4% a safe withdrawal rate?: It’s a common rule of thumb. Success depends on returns, longevity, fees, taxes, and spending flexibility. Use lower rates for more safety.
Should I use nominal or real returns?: For safety, use a real (after-inflation) return assumption or lower nominal rate to avoid overestimating growth.
What about Social Security/pensions?: Not included. You can reduce annual spending by expected guaranteed income to model their impact.
Can I model changing contributions?: This version assumes steady monthly contributions. Revisit yearly as income or savings rate changes.
Are taxes/fees included?: No. Adjust spending and return assumptions to account for taxes and investment fees.

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For planning illustration only, not financial advice. Investment returns, taxes, inflation, and withdrawal safety vary. Consult a financial professional for personalized guidance.